Feb 08, 2016 - 09:33 AM
In this case, this proposal is no different then ones we saw previously from Md7 and BlackDot Wireless on behalf of AT&T. In some cases, the guarantee wasn't even being offered by AT&T- it was Md7 that was providing the guarantee which makes it significantly less valuable.
In general, the value of the guarantee doesn't exceed the present value of the future revenue loss. In fact, the revised language that would be required in the "amended" lease may cause the loss of future additional rent from modifications or other changes that AT&T would like to have.
You wisely though ask the question of whether this might change in the future. The short answer is that it might. Small cells and other het-net related technologies will give the wireless carriers like AT&T more tools in their toolbet with which to work around what were previously mission critical macrocells. Macrocells in general aren't going anywhere but that doesn't mean that there won't be strategic optimization where more expensive macrocells end up being replaced by multiple small cells or other advancements.
At the end of the day, each site is unique and has a relatively unique value to the carrier. If you need help determining whether this specific site warrants additional review or wish to gain a more specific review of your location, please reach out to me at ken at steelintheair dot com.